Learn how to bet on the goals of a soccer game:
Sometimes when you bet on football, no team looks particularly interesting. The 1×2 market is very smart these days, and while there is value out there in the match result betting odds, sometimes the odds are really balanced and professional bettors look for value elsewhere.
The goal betting markets offer plenty of value too.
Number of goals betting: 101
You don’t even have to know how to calculate odds, value, fair odds, or anything like that to start understanding how the market is organized.
Your first lesson is purely qualitative.
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League match between Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla, on October 11th, 2022, these are the current average odds to bet on goals.
Over 2.5 goals: 1.72
Under 2.5 goals: 2.16
These are the odds for the full-time score.
Over and under 2.5 goals are your bet. The other numbers are the odds, which are used to determine how much you can win by betting on the line, but this is our second lesson.
Over / Under 2.5 goals: Understanding football betting lines
The market uses a decimal number to avoid a betting draw. It means this kind of line was created to generate a result in which you and the house either win or lose.
To understand what a betting draw is, guide our Guide about Betting Draws.
Let’s suppose this game finished 1-1. That match has therefore produced two goals.
2 is a smaller number than 2.5, so bets on under 2.5 would win, and bets on over 2.5 would lose, regardless of the odds in both cases.
The odds are related to the prize, while the lines (over/under 2.5) have to do with your selection, which in this case, means how many goals you believe the game will have.
There are several lines available to the same game on retail bookmakers, but at Asian Handicap, usually, one or two lines are available. The Asian Handicap is an advanced market used mostly by professionals.
Should I bet or not? Betting Odds Calculation 101
The odds can make a big difference in your betting results.
Let’s make a comparison here. Joe and Ben have both bet on 10 games, always the over 2.5 line, but they have bet on different odds. They have won 50% of their bets and lost 50% of the stakes
Joe is a professional and he understands the importance of high odds. Ben on the other hand just wants to win, regardless of the odds.
Let’s suppose they have bet 10 times, always £100, on over 2.5.
Joe has bet on odds of 2.20 on average. Ben has bet on odds of 1.80, on average.
Betting results of Joe and Ben
Joe: 20% ROI and £100 in profits
Joe = £100 * 5 profitable bets * 2.20 (average odds) = £1100 – lost £500 in stakes = £600
Joe had 500 pounds before the series of bets, and now he has 600 GBP.
He had a profit of £100, with an ROI of 20%
Ben: 20% ROI and £100 in profits
Joe = £100 * 5 profitable bets * 1.80 (average odds) = £900 – lost £500 in stakes = £400
Joe had 500 pounds before the series of bets, and now he has 400 GBP.
He had a net loss of £100, and an ROI of minus 20%.
The secret to profiting from sports betting: It’s all about the odds!
This is not exclusive to soccer, the key to profit from sports betting is choosing the odds wisely. In this example, two guys bet on the exact same thing, and the difference between odds of 1.80 and 2.20 was a net loss of 20% or a net profit of the same amount!
But how do I know if the odds are good enough? Well, the first step was to understand the mathematical impact of odds. In our upcoming guide, we’ll discuss how to make estimations to profit with soccer betting!
Soccer Nuts – Leagues and Betting Guides
We are publishing betting guides about exotic betting leagues. With our guides, you’ll be able to diversify your betting options. Check out our guides about Brazilian domestic football and the MLS.