Napoli – Ajax – UEFA Champions League Matchday 4:
The last round, that is, matchday 3 of the group stage, had a major surprise. Napoli was not the favorite to win the game in the betting markets, but the Italians destroyed the hosts in Amsterdam with a 1-6 final result.
Impressive indeed. The hosts only had Tadic sent off at minute 73’, so that hardly justifies the impressive final score.
Will the situation repeat? Well, before having a look at what is going on in the betting markets, we need to understand the sports situation of Group A before matchday in the upcoming midweek.
UEFA Champions League 2022/2023 Group A: Situation after Matchday 3
Napoli has won all games so far and leads the group with 9 points. Liverpool is second with six points. Rangers are the underdogs of the group with 0 points.
Ajax has 3 points after three games played and they need to collect points to fight for a spot in the knockout phase.
A draw at home in the upcoming midweek will probably be enough to qualify the Italians to the Round of 16. A victory in their domains will mathematically guarantee their presence in the next phase of the UEFA Champions League.
Napoli – Ajax: UCL Betting Preview, Group A matchday 4
The hosts have odds of 1.63 on average to win the game in the 1×2 market. The match draw now has odds of 4.48 on average and the visitors’ potential victory has odds of 5.05.
The victory of Napoli could pay profits of 63% to bettors that believe in their chances, but the odds are a bit low for the standards of the Asian Handicap market.
The professionals’ market has even odds stabilized at the lines -1 / +1. To learn what this means, check out our Beginners’’ Guide to Asian Handicap Betting.
The current average odds are Napoli -1 @2.02 and Ajax +1 @1.85.
When pride matters: the aftermath of a historical result
Football has some situations that cause immediate reactions. If we consider that Napoli has proved to have the power to score that many goals against the Dutch side, then another match full of goals could be expected, and the Asian lines could have stabilized at much higher numbers like -/+1.5 or beyond.
But a loss like this will be a wake-up call to Ajax. The team had to be rebuilt after a complicated transfer window, but it is leading the classification table at their domestic league anyways.
So a tragedy like Matchday 3 will most certainly impact the morale and motivation of this team.
Moreover, Ajax simply needs these 3 points desperately, and while Napoli is living a winning streak, another tragedy for the Dutch is not that likely, at least not like this. Imagine this: Napoli could have overcome an AH line of -4.5 in the last round!
Napoli – Ajax: Over/Under, number of goals betting markets, Asian Lines and odds
The markets certainly expect the game to have lots of goals. The combined average of goals of both teams so far in the season certainly contributed to the lines that stabilized between Over/under 3.25 and 3.5 goals in the Asian handicap goal betting market.
The lines are pretty impressive even if we consider that Napoli has a -1 handicap with odds around even.
I believe the wisest thing to do at this market is to check the first minutes of the game live and try to understand the tendency of this game. We can see lots of goals if the dynamics of the last game repeat, or we can see Ajax playing better and potentially fewer goals, and maybe even the visitors winning at least in the AH?
Your call! Check out our trusted partners and place your bet!