Handicap Betting 101 – The Asian Handicap football system:
Professional bettors simply don’t use normally the 1×2 betting markets. The reason is simple: the odds are not good. Not only the house takes a bigger cut in the retail bookies than the Asian ones, but the way the odds are calculated also isn’t optimal for professional betting.
The AH betting system is not something that can be grasped in a small article, but we definitely will help you understand it. We’ll take you from beginner to intermediate level, to advanced handicap bettor with our series of guides.
The essence of Asian Handicap betting: making the big teams good enough
Nowadays it’s pretty boring to bet on Real Madrid, PSG, Manchester City, or Bayern München in the 1×2 odds system. The prizes to guess correctly whether these giants will win is not worth the risk on most occasions.
For that reason, this market is usually preferred by recreational bettors, i.e. punters that want to have some fun and nothing else.
Sustained, long-term professional betting profits need bigger odds and a balanced system of bets and odds.
Real-life example – How Asian handicap soccer betting works in practice:
Let’s consider the upcoming UEFA Champions League match between FC Copenhagen against Manchester City.
The match, which will happen next Tuesday, October 11th, 2022, in Denmark, is the perfect example of why handicap betting is a lot more exciting in matches involving Manchester City.
Man City is in top form, and their new striker Erling Haaland is scoring several goals and crushing records, one after the other. The player has already beaten Cristiano Ronaldo in terms of the number of hat tricks in the English Premier League.
For that reason, and many others, the odds for Manchester City to win this game are 1.13 on average right now.
This means the market estimates the chances of the English side according to the following formula:
100%(all possible results) / 1.13 = 88.49%
Really low odds indeed!
It means the chances of their victory happening are so high that you’re not really earning much by risking your money.
Balancing the difference between the teams: the goal of the handicaps
Handicap betting tries to guess by how many goals a big team will win a game. That’s the essence of big handicaps in this case.
Typically, a professional punter will look for odds in the house of 2.0. Right now, the Asian Handicap line that has odds of 2.03 on average is the Manchester City -2.5 selection. We’ll explain how Asian lines are calculated in the second post of this series about AH, but for now, just have in mind this: If Manchester City wins by more than 2 goals, the bettor wins 103% in betting profits. A £50 bet would bring home a prize of 101.50 GBP.
And in case City wins by 2 goals, or one goal, or fails to win the game, the bet would be lost.
As you can see, to obtain better results, this market tries to balance the difference between the teams. The market has evolved, and they often have educated guesses, but there are mistakes and that’s where value hides.
We’ll publish a full betting guide about value betting value soon, don’t worry about that.
Summary: Asian Handicap betting 101
In this initial guide, we wanted to show you how games between big teams and smaller teams work in the Asian handicap. Games between teams of similar quality in the eyes of the market are different, but there’s one thing in common: in the Asian handicap market, there are always just two possibilities in terms of betting result, winner or loser, in case the handicap ends with half a ball (.5).
If you already understand these basic concepts about Asian Handicap, you might find interesting our guide about DNB – Draw no Bet, which introduces the concept of the -0 and +0 lines of AH.
If you’re learning about different betting markets, you may also enjoy our fresh guide about over/under goals betting.
